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Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, October 10, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, October 10, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, October 10, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Saturday, October 10

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 1–0
Proj1.5–0.7
Match page →
LILLLilleHOME✓54%1.5proj-116fair-178mkt-10.3%
Draw29%—proj+246fair+381mktModel lean+8.1%
HACLe Havre ACAWAY17%0.7proj+476fair+564mkt+2.3%
O2.5 38% · mkt 58% ✓BTTS 41% · mkt 52% ✓1H O1.5 26% · mkt 38% ✓
beIn Sports
FT · 2–2
Proj2.0–1.2
Match page →
MONAS MonacoHOME✗56%2.0proj-127fair-147mkt-3.5%
Draw23%—proj+329fair+350mkt+1.1%
TOUToulouseAWAY21%1.2proj+384fair+451mkt+2.5%
O2.5 62% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 42% · mkt 42% ✗
FT · 3–1
Proj2.4–1.1
Match page →
PSGParis Saint-GermainHOME✓64%2.4proj-181fair-433mkt-16.8%
Draw20%—proj+398fair+790mktModel lean+8.8%
MNSLe MansAWAY15%1.1proj+548fair+1301mktModel lean+8.3%
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 49% ✓1H O1.5 46% · mkt 51% ✓
beIn Sports
FT · 5–1
Proj1.4–1.0
Match page →
BREBrestHOME✓45%1.4proj+123fair-104mkt-6.1%
Draw30%—proj+238fair+298mktModel lean+4.4%
ANGAngersAWAY26%1.0proj+292fair+319mkt+1.7%
O2.5 43% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 49% · mkt 61% ✗1H O1.5 29% · mkt 38% ✗
FT · 1–0
Proj1.1–1.2
Match page →
LORLorientHOME32%1.1proj+208fair+271mktModel lean+5.5%
Draw31%—proj+227fair+260mkt+2.9%
PARParis FCAWAY✗37%1.2proj+171fair+124mkt-7.8%
O2.5 42% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 49% · mkt 56% ✓1H O1.5 29% · mkt 33% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).