Ligue 1 Match Board — Friday, October 16, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Friday, October 16, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Friday, October 16

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.9–1.6

Match page →

Le MansHOME46%1.9proj+119fair+211mktModel lean+13.7%

Draw24%—proj+321fair+270mkt-3.3%

ToulouseAWAY31%1.6proj+228fair+144mkt-10.5%

O2.5 68% · mkt 54%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).