Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, October 17, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, October 17, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Saturday, October 17

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

11:15 AM ET

Proj1.5–1.9

Match page →

StrasbourgHOME28%1.5proj+251fair+572mktModel lean+13.6%

Draw24%—proj+318fair+459mktModel lean+6.0%

Paris Saint-GermainAWAY48%1.9proj+110fair-204mkt-19.5%

O2.5 66%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 45%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.7–1.0

Match page →

LilleHOME53%1.7proj-113fair-119mkt-1.3%

Draw27%—proj+276fair+316mkt+2.5%

BrestAWAY20%1.0proj+392fair+366mkt-1.1%

O2.5 49% · mkt 56%BTTS 51%1H O1.5 33%

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.0–2.1

Match page →

TroyesHOME16%1.0proj+513fair+319mkt-7.6%

Draw22%—proj+356fair+317mkt-2.0%

LensAWAY62%2.1proj-162fair-108mktModel lean+9.8%

O2.5 61% · mkt 60%BTTS 57%1H O1.5 41%

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).