Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, September 21, 2026
Top home runs spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. The righty is going deep on .062 HR/PA against righties this year — and .122 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Trey Yesavage has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Trey Yesavage, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (85) vs RHP River Ryan: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (75) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), due to bounce back.
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) (59) vs RHP Shane Baz: real bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) (59) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) (52) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: real bat at .047 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (51) vs RHP River Ryan: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Josh Bell (MIN) (50) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: solid bat at .037 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
54 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the home runs board is
The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
- The park's home-run environment and the wind.
- How hard and how often he hits it in the air.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.
How to use it
Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet the WizLine against the line; there's no edge to press.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays