Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Blake Snell. The righty is driving in runs at .123 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Blake Snell has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Blake Snell, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) (89) vs LHP Blake Snell: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (88) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .135 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (84) vs LHP Blake Snell: an excellent bat at .146 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (69) vs LHP Robert Gasser: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (69) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a solid bat at .111 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) (67) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .125 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Andy Pages (LAD) (67) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .122 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .123 against lefties this year.
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .135 against lefties this year.
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .164 against lefties this year.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .112 against lefties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays