Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, October 12, 2026
Top rbis spot: Yandy Díaz
Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Foster Griffin. The righty is driving in runs at .134 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 12% of his trips. And Foster Griffin has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Foster Griffin. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (94) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a strong bat at .123 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (92) vs LHP Foster Griffin: a strong bat at .124 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (92) vs RHP Logan Henderson: a strong bat at .131 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (83) vs RHP Logan Henderson: a strong bat at .137 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Ryan Vilade (TB) (81) vs LHP Foster Griffin: a strong bat at .140 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) (80) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (79) vs LHP Foster Griffin: a league-average bat at .091 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .134 against lefties this year.
- Junior Caminero (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .087 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .128 against righties this year.
- Ryan Vilade (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .159 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
36 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays