Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, August 24, 2026
Top runs spot: CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .166 R/PA against righties this year — and .074 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .226 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .151 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.290).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (90) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (84) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.178).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (79) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (79) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.178).
- Zack Gelof (ATH) (77) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .145 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (75) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a solid bat at .120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .161 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .148 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play CJ Abrams finished with 2 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays