Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, August 24, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is scoring at .164 R/PA against righties this year — and .156 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting lit up by righties lately — .290 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Merrill Kelly too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Daylen Lile (WSH) (90) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .120 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.226).
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) (88) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.226), due to bounce back.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (77) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (76) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .134 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luke Keaschall (MIN) (74) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .119 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (74) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.178).
- Michael Busch (CHC) (73) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a league-average bat at .109 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.290).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .148 against lefties this year.
- Luke Keaschall (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .112 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays