Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, September 21, 2026
Top runs spot: Walker Jenkins
Walker Jenkins (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Blade Tidwell. The lefty is scoring at .154 R/PA against righties this year — and .133 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Blade Tidwell has been getting lit up by righties lately — .208 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Blade Tidwell. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP River Ryan: an excellent bat at .166 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (100) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .136 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hot bat.
- Drew Gilbert (SF) (90) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174), due to bounce back.
- Jonah Cox (SF) (90) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .133 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.083), due to bounce back.
- Brett Bateman (TOR) (89) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.216).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (87) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), due to bounce back.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (79) vs LHP DJ Herz: a strong bat at .148 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Walker Jenkins (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Brett Bateman (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Walker Jenkins finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays