Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is running at .084 SB/PA against righties this year — and .148 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 9% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- José Caballero (NYY) (87) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an elite bat at .101.
- David Hamilton (MIL) (84) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an elite bat at .083, due to bounce back.
- Jonny DeLuca (TB) (70) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an elite bat at .065.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) (65) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an elite bat at .072, due to bounce back.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) (62) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an elite bat at .080.
- Evan Carter (TEX) (61) vs RHP Logan Webb: an elite bat at .053.
- Cooper Pratt (MIL) (52) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: an elite bat at .051, hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- David Hamilton (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .092 against righties this year.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .108 against righties this year.
- Evan Carter (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.