Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

Eric Wagaman (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. A league-average bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Eric Wagaman (100), Kyle Schwarber (98), Bryce Harper (94), Juan Soto (93), A.J. Ewing (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .465 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .512 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year. A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .488 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Eric Wagaman (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM). RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .385 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a total base.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a total base a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Total Bases Board · Today

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

7:10 PM ET

NYMaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 18 hitters are projected from each team's last game. Batting order (a key score driver) isn't final; these update automatically ~2 hours before first pitch.

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.356

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0001 PA

Season.0007 PA

Last 2 Years.323393 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jun 27vs PHI0

Jun 28vs PHI0

Jul 4@ ATL1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.439

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.69623 PA

Season.483174 PA

Last 2 Years.441510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.390

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.420238 PA

Season.3581450 PA

Last 2 Years.3394553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.307

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.792

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Eric Wagaman's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.385

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.34144 PA

Season.465254 PA

Last 2 Years.457921 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8@ CIN4

Jul 9@ CIN1

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET2

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.385

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.45735 PA

Season.347144 PA

Last 2 Years.429168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.381

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.407204 PA

Season.3641156 PA

Last 2 Years.3232961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.342

Hard-Hit %41%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Total Bases0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.781

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.403

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.38644 PA

Season.512248 PA

Last 2 Years.450796 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET3

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.385

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.45735 PA

Season.347144 PA

Last 2 Years.429168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.381

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.407204 PA

Season.3641156 PA

Last 2 Years.3232961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.345

Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Total Bases4 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.766

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryce Harper's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.443

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.55338 PA

Season.505216 PA

Last 2 Years.479881 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8vs KC0

Jul 9vs KC4

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.378

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.35448 PA

Season.438251 PA

Last 2 Years.449689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.302

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.273154 PA

Season.295977 PA

Last 2 Years.3132821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.396

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head11-for-42

Total Bases28 in 59 PA

Career Average.186

Plate Appearances59

HR · K · BB5 · 11 · 17

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.759

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Juan Soto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.411

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.51243 PA

Season.394160 PA

Last 2 Years.394160 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8vs KC6

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS2

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS2

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.378

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.35448 PA

Season.438251 PA

Last 2 Years.449689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.302

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.273154 PA

Season.295977 PA

Last 2 Years.3132821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.341

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-3

Total Bases3 in 3 PA

Career Average.667

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.749

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

A.J. Ewing's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.419

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks1.1119 PA

Season.33965 PA

Last 2 Years.323412 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 5@ ATL4

Jul 9vs KC6

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS2

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.439

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.69623 PA

Season.483174 PA

Last 2 Years.441510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.390

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.420238 PA

Season.3581450 PA

Last 2 Years.3394553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.336

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head5-for-12

Total Bases7 in 14 PA

Career Average.357

Plate Appearances14

HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 1

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.736

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyrone Taylor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.65

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.395

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.45544 PA

Season.372274 PA

Last 2 Years.397928 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.299

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.27089 PA

Last 2 Years.262107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.376

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.412204 PA

Season.3221127 PA

Last 2 Years.3283332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.320

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.307

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-1

Total Bases0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 1

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.642

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Trea Turner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.392

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.36247 PA

Season.488262 PA

Last 2 Years.434781 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN2

Jul 10@ DET1

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.385

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.45735 PA

Season.347144 PA

Last 2 Years.429168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.381

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.407204 PA

Season.3641156 PA

Last 2 Years.3232961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.328

Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Total Bases1 in 2 PA

Career Average.500

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.612

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45

vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.349

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.27037 PA

Season.328119 PA

Last 2 Years.449839 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 7vs KC0

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS6

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.378

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.35448 PA

Season.438251 PA

Last 2 Years.449689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.302

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.273154 PA

Season.295977 PA

Last 2 Years.3132821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.298

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head8-for-38

Total Bases13 in 42 PA

Career Average.191

Plate Appearances42

HR · K · BB1 · 10 · 2

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.598

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Francisco Lindor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.337

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.26319 PA

Season.278126 PA

Last 2 Years.296392 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 5@ ATL0

Jul 6@ ATL2

Jul 7vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC0

Jul 12vs BOS1

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.439

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.69623 PA

Season.483174 PA

Last 2 Years.441510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.390

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.420238 PA

Season.3581450 PA

Last 2 Years.3394553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.307

Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-6

Total Bases2 in 6 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances6

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.597

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Luis Torrens's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2.7× / ~1.6×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.391

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.45040 PA

Season.376290 PA

Last 2 Years.376290 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8vs KC2

Jul 9vs KC2

Jul 10vs BOS1

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.378

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.35448 PA

Season.438251 PA

Last 2 Years.449689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.302

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.273154 PA

Season.295977 PA

Last 2 Years.3132821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.346

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Total Bases1 in 3 PA

Career Average.333

Plate Appearances3

HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.57

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Carson Benge's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 3 games since a hit

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.336

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.0003 PA

Season.12133 PA

Last 2 Years.20075 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jun 18@ PHI0

Jun 20@ PHI1

Jul 10vs BOS0

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.439

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.69623 PA

Season.483174 PA

Last 2 Years.441510 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.390

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.420238 PA

Season.3581450 PA

Last 2 Years.3394553 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.301

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.52

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Zack Short's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35

vs SP / Bullpen~2.4× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.358

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.37046 PA

Season.314255 PA

Last 2 Years.337784 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET0

Jul 12@ DET1

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.299

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.27089 PA

Last 2 Years.262107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.376

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.412204 PA

Season.3221127 PA

Last 2 Years.3283332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.321

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.307

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.512

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alec Bohm's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.332

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00010 PA

Season.30672 PA

Last 2 Years.348267 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jun 27@ NYM0

Jul 6@ KC0

Jul 7@ CIN1

Jul 8@ CIN1

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.299

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.27089 PA

Last 2 Years.262107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.376

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.412204 PA

Season.3221127 PA

Last 2 Years.3283332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.279

Hard-Hit %33%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.307

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Total Bases0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.462

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edmundo Sosa's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.356

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.32749 PA

Season.359276 PA

Last 2 Years.363905 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8@ CIN0

Jul 9@ CIN2

Jul 10@ DET0

Jul 11@ DET2

Jul 12@ DET3

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.385

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.45735 PA

Season.347144 PA

Last 2 Years.429168 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.381

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.407204 PA

Season.3641156 PA

Last 2 Years.3232961 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.310

Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.316

Hard-Hit % Allowed36%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Total Bases0 in 2 PA

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances2

HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.452

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryson Stott's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.370

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.41217 PA

Season.35756 PA

Last 2 Years.318223 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 7@ CIN3

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 10@ DET6

Jul 11@ DET1

Jul 12@ DET0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.299

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.27089 PA

Last 2 Years.262107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.376

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.412204 PA

Season.3221127 PA

Last 2 Years.3283332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.323

Hard-Hit %32%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.307

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.416

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Derek Hill's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.372

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.42540 PA

Season.302255 PA

Last 2 Years.363604 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 8vs KC1

Jul 9vs KC1

Jul 10vs BOS6

Jul 11vs BOS0

Jul 12vs BOS0

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.378

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.35448 PA

Season.438251 PA

Last 2 Years.449689 PA

Opposing Starter · Season19 GS

W–L3–6

ERA5.75

WHIP1.43

IP97.0

H / K / BB108 / 102 / 31

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.302

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.273154 PA

Season.295977 PA

Last 2 Years.3132821 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.322

Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317

Hard-Hit % Allowed37%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-12

Total Bases1 in 15 PA

Career Average.067

Plate Appearances15

HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 3

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.393

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brett Baty's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9

vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherNeutral

Batter · Total Bases / PA vs RHP.341

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.25831 PA

Season.325188 PA

Last 2 Years.370718 PA

Last 5 GamesTotal Bases

Jul 7@ CIN0

Jul 8@ CIN4

Jul 9@ CIN0

Jul 11@ DET2

Jul 12@ DET3

Opposing Starter · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.299

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05020 PA

Season.27089 PA

Last 2 Years.262107 PA

Opposing Starter · Season12 GS

W–L2–1

ERA3.17

WHIP1.30

IP54.0

H / K / BB44 / 65 / 26

Opposing Bullpen · Total Bases allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.376

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.412204 PA

Season.3221127 PA

Last 2 Years.3283332 PA

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.297

Hard-Hit %28%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.307

Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups—

Projection

Projected Total Bases1.343

A rough estimate of total bases to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.T. Realmuto's full player page →

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Eric Wagaman (NYM) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, with Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Bryce Harper (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Eric Wagaman

Eric Wagaman (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The righty is racking up bases at .000 TB/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a total base in about 36% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties lately — .696 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Aaron Nola. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (98) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .385 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.457).
Bryce Harper (PHI) (94) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .403 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.457).
Juan Soto (NYM) (93) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .443 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.354), due to bounce back.
A.J. Ewing (NYM) (91) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .411 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.354).
Tyrone Taylor (NYM) (88) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .419 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.696).
Trea Turner (PHI) (67) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .395 into an arm tough on the same side (.050).
Brandon Marsh (PHI) (60) vs RHP Christian Scott: a solid bat at .392 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.457), due to bounce back.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Eric Wagaman (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM).
RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .385 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).

Platoon edges to target

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .465 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .512 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year.
A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .488 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: Eric Wagaman (NYM) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. A league-average bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Eric Wagaman (100), Kyle Schwarber (98), Bryce Harper (94), Juan Soto (93), A.J. Ewing (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .465 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .512 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .505 against righties this year. A.J. Ewing (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year. Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .488 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Eric Wagaman (NYM), Juan Soto (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM). RHP Christian Scott has been vulnerable to righties — .385 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Trea Turner (PHI).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a total base.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a total base a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays