Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Miller. The lefty is racking up bases at .509 TB/PA against righties this year — and .657 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 46% of his trips. And Bryce Miller has been getting squared up by righties lately — .458 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Bryce Miller, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Dean Kremer: an excellent bat at .502 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.400).
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (100) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .420 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.697).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (96) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a league-average bat at .362 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.458).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (86) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a solid bat at .402 into an arm tough on the same side (.294).
- Matt Vierling (DET) (85) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a league-average bat at .369 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.639).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (85) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a league-average bat at .349 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.458).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (82) vs RHP Brady Singer: a strong bat at .429 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.344).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .474 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU).
- RHP Roki Sasaki has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Trent Grisham (NYY).
- LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Curtis Mead (WSH), Andrés Chaparro (WSH), and Dylan Crews (WSH).
- RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .426 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .509 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .471 against lefties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .409 against righties this year.
- Matt Vierling (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .377 against lefties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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