Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026
Top total bases spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. The lefty is racking up bases at .539 TB/PA against righties this year — and .862 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 50% of his trips. And Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties lately — 1.400 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Dean Kremer too — .300 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Olson (ATL) (80) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .438 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.632).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (78) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a league-average bat at .364 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.632).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (76) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .446 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.632).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (73) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a league-average bat at .363 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.632).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (73) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .371 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.594).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (72) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a league-average bat at .356 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.941).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (72) vs RHP Bailey Ober: a strong bat at .445 into an arm tough on the same side (.235).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .474 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and LaMonte Wade Jr. (HOU).
- RHP Roki Sasaki has been getting squared up by righties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Trent Grisham (NYY).
- LHP Gage Jump has been getting squared up by lefties — .431 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Crews (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and Keibert Ruiz (WSH).
- RHP Seth Lugo has been getting squared up by righties — .426 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Manny Machado (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .539 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .494 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .365 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .349 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
27 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.