Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Top total bases spot: Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dean Kremer. The lefty is racking up bases at .365 TB/PA against righties this year — and .556 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 41% of his trips. And Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties lately — 1.063 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .125 in 8 career PA against Dean Kremer, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) (95) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a league-average bat at .326 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.063), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (93) vs RHP Mitch Keller: a strong bat at .449 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.583), hot bat.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (93) vs LHP Tyler Alexander: a league-average bat at .343 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.571).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (93) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .421 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- James Wood (WSH) (91) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .448 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (90) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a solid bat at .403 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.346).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (87) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a league-average bat at .360 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Masataka Yoshida (BOS).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD).
- RHP Colin Rea has been vulnerable to righties — .416 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Gleyber Torres (DET), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Hao-Yu Lee (DET).
- RHP Mitch Keller has been vulnerable to righties — .404 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Trent Grisham (NYY), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY).
Platoon edges to target
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .365 against righties this year.
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .343 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .533 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .549 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.