Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Top total bases spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walker Buehler. The lefty is racking up bases at .431 TB/PA against righties this year — and .750 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 47% of his trips. And Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties lately — .947 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Walker Buehler too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (99) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (98) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (95) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .386 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (88) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .449 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (87) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .399 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.857).
- Kyle Karros (COL) (85) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .419 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625).
- James Wood (WSH) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .433 into an arm tough on the same side (.257).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Colson Montgomery (CWS).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Karros (COL), Jake McCarthy (COL), and Hunter Goodman (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .395 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .479 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.