Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Top total bases spot: Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. The lefty is racking up bases at .389 TB/PA against righties this year — and .581 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties lately — .947 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Luis Castillo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (99) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .451 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (98) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .391 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.111).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (92) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .388 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.111).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (89) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .451 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .448 into an arm tough on the same side (.257).
- Heliot Ramos (SF) (86) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a solid bat at .403 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750), hot bat.
- Braden Montgomery (CWS) (86) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .417 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.111), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .435 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Braden Montgomery (CWS).
- LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Justin Foscue (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).
Platoon edges to target
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .389 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .477 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Elly De La Cruz finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.