Who has the best total bases matchup today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), Drake Baldwin (99), Sam Antonacci (98), Munetaka Murakami (92), Matt Olson (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Tuesday, July 21, 2026?

Yes — Elly De La Cruz got 4 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .389 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .477 against righties this year. Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN). RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .435 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Braden Montgomery (CWS). LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Justin Foscue (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on the total-bases over/under, against 47% on the season.

Top call Elly De La Cruz came through. Drake Baldwin didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–5

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup67 Final · 2–1

LADaway

PHIhomeTop matchup70 Final · 12–2

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup75 Final · 8–3

SDaway

ATLhomeTop matchup99 Final · 2–3

SFaway

KChomeTop matchup86 Final · 4–0

NYMaway

MILhomeTop matchup66 Final · 2–11

DETaway

CHChomeTop matchup61 Final · 0–10

CWSaway

TEXhomeTop matchup98 Final · 3–5

MIAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup77 Final · 7–8

WSHaway

COLhomeTop matchup86 Final · 1–5

STLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup52 Final · 5–6

ATHaway

AZhomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–2

CINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting60 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 294 shownScore

153 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@COL· 2-for-3
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T1
Manny Machado3B
SD@ATL· 2-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
3
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@ATL· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T3
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsCWS· 4-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
5
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsWSH· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T5
Dillon DinglerC
DET@CHC· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T5
Nick FortesC
TB@TOR· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #203
8
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T8
Yandy DíazDH
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T8
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsWSH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T8
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@ATL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T8
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #138
T8
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T8
Max KeplerLF
AZvsATH· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T8
Jared Young1B
NYM@MIL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #223
16
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@SEA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T16
James WoodRF
WSH@COL· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T16
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@COL· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T16
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T16
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #28
T16
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T16
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #62
T16
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T16
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsLAD· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T16
Carter JensenC
KCvsSF· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T16
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T16
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@MIL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T16
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsSD· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T16
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsDET· 2-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T16
Max Muncy3B
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T16
Ben Williamson2B
TB@TOR· 4-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #158
T16
Joe MackC
MIA@HOU· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #179
T16
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@MIL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #183
T16
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@TOR· 4-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #217
T16
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #221
T16
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
37
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsWSH· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T37
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@HOU· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T37
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsWSH· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T37
Ty France1B
SD@ATL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T37
George SpringerDH
TORvsTB· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T37
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T37
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsCIN· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T37
Alec Burleson1B
STL@LAA· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T37
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #188
T37
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@HOU· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #189
T37
Carson BengeRF
NYM@MIL· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #196
T37
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T37
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #216
T37
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsCWS· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #231
T37
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@HOU· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #233
52
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T52
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T52
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T52
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T52
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T52
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@TEX· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T52
Junior Caminero3B
TB@TOR· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T52
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@HOU· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T52
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsTB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #60
T52
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #63
T52
Jesus RodriguezC
SF@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T52
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T52
Willi Castro2B
COLvsWSH· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T52
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T52
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@TOR· 2-for-6
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T52
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T52
Daylen LileLF
WSH@COL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #102
T52
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T52
Josh BellDH
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T52
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
T52
Tommy White3B
ATH@AZ· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T52
Kody Clemens2B
MIN@CLE· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T52
Matt VierlingCF
DET@CHC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #132
T52
Gabriel Arias3B
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T52
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@COL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T52
Luis TorrensC
NYM@MIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #164
T52
Elias DíazC
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T52
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T52
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsSF· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #182
T52
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsSF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #202
T52
Lucas SpenceCF
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #214
T52
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsDET· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #219
T52
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@ATL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #225
T52
Eliezer AlfonzoC
LAD@PHI· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #226
T52
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T52
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsCWS· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB
88
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #4
T88
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T88
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T88
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #22
T88
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T88
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
T88
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T88
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T88
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T88
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T88
José TenaDH
WSH@COL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T88
Andy PagesCF
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T88
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T88
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T88
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T88
Byron BuxtonCF
MIN@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T88
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #57
T88
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T88
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #72
T88
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T88
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T88
Jonah HeimC
ATH@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T88
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T88
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T88
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T88
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T88
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T88
Iván HerreraDH
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #121
T88
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #128
T88
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T88
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T88
Carson KellyC
CHCvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T88
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T88
Christian KossSS
SF@KC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T88
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T88
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsNYM· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T88
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@MIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T88
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T88
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #151
T88
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T88
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T88
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWS@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T88
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #165
T88
Luis CampusanoC
SD@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T88
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T88
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T88
Jose TrevinoC
CIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #184
T88
Starling MarteRF
KCvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #186
T88
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T88
Taylor TrammellLF
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T88
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T88
Drew GilbertCF
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #195
T88
Luis RengifoLF
SD@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #199
T88
Michael Massey2B
KCvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T88
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@AZ· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #204
T88
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T88
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #209
T88
Myles StrawCF
TORvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #212
T88
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T88
Ian HappLF
CHCvsDET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #222
T88
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #224
T88
Bryan TorresLF
STL@LAA· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #230
T88
Jorge BarrosaCF
AZvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #232
T88
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@CLE· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T88
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsNYM· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T88
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsSF· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) is the top total bases matchup on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 board at 100, with Drake Baldwin (ATL) and Sam Antonacci (CWS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Elly De La Cruz

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. The lefty is racking up bases at .389 TB/PA against righties this year — and .581 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties lately — .947 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Luis Castillo, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Drake Baldwin (ATL) (99) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .451 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (98) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .391 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.111).
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (92) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .388 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.111).
Matt Olson (ATL) (89) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .451 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.947).
James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .448 into an arm tough on the same side (.257).
Heliot Ramos (SF) (86) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a solid bat at .403 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750), hot bat.
Braden Montgomery (CWS) (86) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .417 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.111), hot bat.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL).
RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .435 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Braden Montgomery (CWS).
LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Justin Foscue (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).

Platoon edges to target

Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .389 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .477 against righties this year.
Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Elly De La Cruz finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Tuesday, July 21, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Tuesday, July 21, 2026: Elly De La Cruz (100), Drake Baldwin (99), Sam Antonacci (98), Munetaka Murakami (92), Matt Olson (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Tuesday, July 21, 2026?: Yes — Elly De La Cruz got 4 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .389 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .431 against righties this year. Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .477 against righties this year. Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .502 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .463 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN). RHP Walker Buehler has been getting squared up by righties — .445 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Ozzie Albies (ATL). RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .435 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Munetaka Murakami (CWS), and Braden Montgomery (CWS). LHP Noah Schultz has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Justin Foscue (TEX), and Josh Jung (TEX).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.