MatchWiz
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Premier League Match Board — Saturday, January 18, 2025

Every Premier League match on Saturday, January 18, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches
ML9-6+13.0u
Over 2.511-4+3.2u
BTTS8-7−0.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 13 of 15 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, January 18

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 1–4
Match page →
NEWNewcastle UnitedvsBOUAFC Bournemouth

St. James' Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

USA Net · Universo
FT · 0–2
Match page →
BREBrentfordvsLIVLiverpool

Gtech Community Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Peacock
FT · 2–2
Match page →
ARSArsenalvsAVLAston Villa

Emirates Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

NBC · Universo

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).