MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Premier League Match Board — Saturday, August 23, 2025

Every Premier League match on Saturday, August 23, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches
ML7-3+11.5u
Over 2.57-3+1.0u
BTTS5-5−1.0u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 10 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, August 23

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 0–2
MNCManchester CityvsTOTTottenham Hotspur

Etihad Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

USA Net · Universo
FT · 1–0
BREBrentfordvsAVLAston Villa

Gtech Community Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

USA Net
FT · 5–0
ARSArsenalvsLEELeeds United

Emirates Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

NBC · Universo · Peacock

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).