Premier League Match Board — Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Every Premier League match on Wednesday, December 3, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML7-3+11.5u

Over 2.57-3+1.0u

BTTS5-5−1.0u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 10 on Over 2.5.

Wednesday, December 3

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–0

Arsenalvs

Brentford

Emirates Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

USA Net

FT · 3–4

Brighton & Hove Albionvs AVL

Aston Villa

American Express Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Peacock

FT · 3–1

Leeds Unitedvs CHE

Chelsea

Elland Road · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Peacock

FT · 1–1

Liverpoolvs SUN

Sunderland

Anfield · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Peacock

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).