Premier League Match Board — Saturday, December 6, 2025

Every Premier League match on Saturday, December 6, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML7-3+11.5u

Over 2.57-3+1.0u

BTTS5-5−1.0u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 10 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, December 6

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–1

Aston Villavs ARS

Arsenal

Villa Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

USA Net · Universo

FT · 0–0

AFC Bournemouthvs CHE

Chelsea

Vitality Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

NBCSN · Peacock

FT · 3–0

Evertonvs

Nottingham Forest

Hill Dickinson Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Peacock

FT · 3–0

Manchester Cityvs SUN

Sunderland

Etihad Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Peacock

FT · 2–0

Tottenham Hotspurvs BRE

Brentford

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

USA Net

FT · 3–3

Leeds Unitedvs LIV

Liverpool

Elland Road · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

NBC

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).