La Liga Match Board — Sunday, May 18, 2025

Every La Liga match on Sunday, May 18, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML9-11−2.2u

Over 2.59-11−4.3u

BTTS8-12−5.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 16 of 20 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, May 18

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 4–1

Atlético Madridvs BET

Real Betis

Riyadh Air Metropolitano · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 2–3

Barcelonavs VIL

Villarreal

Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–2

Celta Vigovs RAY

Rayo Vallecano

Estadio Abanca-Balaídos · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 2–0

Osasunavs

Espanyol

El Sadar · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 0–2

Sevillavs

Real Madrid

Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 0–1

Valenciavs ATH

Athletic Club

Mestalla · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).