La Liga Match Board — Friday, August 15, 2025

Every La Liga match on Friday, August 15, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 32 of 41 on Over 2.5.

Friday, August 15

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–3

Match page →

Gironavs

Rayo Vallecano

Municipal de Montilivi · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 2–0

Match page →

Villarrealvs OVI

Real Oviedo

Estadio de la Cerámica · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).