La Liga Match Board — Sunday, September 28, 2025

Every La Liga match on Sunday, September 28, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML8-10−1.6u

Over 2.59-9−3.3u

BTTS8-10−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 15 of 18 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, September 28

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 0–1

Rayo Vallecanovs SEV

Sevilla

Estadio de Vallecas · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 2–1

Elchevs

Celta Vigo

Martínez Valero · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 2–1

Barcelonavs RSO

Real Sociedad

Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 2–0

Real Betisvs OSA

Osasuna

Estadio La Cartuja · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).