La Liga Match Board — Sunday, October 5, 2025

Every La Liga match on Sunday, October 5, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML7-10−2.0u

Over 2.58-9−3.3u

BTTS8-9−2.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 15 of 17 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, October 5

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 3–1

Alavésvs

Elche

Mendizorroza · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 4–1

Sevillavs

Barcelona

Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–2

Espanyolvs BET

Real Betis

RCDE Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 0–1

Real Sociedadvs RAY

Rayo Vallecano

Estadio Municipal de Anoeta · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN+

FT · 1–1

Celta Vigovs ATM

Atlético Madrid

Estadio Abanca-Balaídos · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).