La Liga Match Board — Sunday, December 21, 2025

Every La Liga match on Sunday, December 21, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-10−3.8u

Over 2.57-9−4.1u

BTTS7-9−3.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 14 of 16 on Over 2.5.

Sunday, December 21

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 0–2

Villarrealvs BAR

Barcelona

Estadio de la Cerámica · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 4–0

Elchevs

Rayo Vallecano

Estadio Martínez Valero · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 4–0

Real Betisvs GET

Getafe

Estadio La Cartuja · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).