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Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, September 19, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, September 19, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, September 19, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 19

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–1
Proj1.7–1.3
Match page →
PARParis FCHOME✓44%1.7proj+129fair-110mkt-8.6%
Draw26%—proj+282fair+304mkt+1.4%
STRStrasbourgAWAY30%1.3proj+232fair+336mktModel lean+7.2%
O2.5 58% · mkt 59% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 63% ✓1H O1.5 39% · mkt 40% ✓
beIn Sports
FT · 4–0
Proj1.6–1.3
Match page →
LYONLyonHOME✓44%1.6proj+130fair—mkt—
Draw26%—proj+281fair—mkt—
RENStade RennaisAWAY30%1.3proj+232fair—mkt—
O2.5 57% ✓BTTS 61% ✗1H O1.5 39% ✗
beIn Sports
FT · 3–2
Proj1.4–1.0
Match page →
TOUToulouseHOME✓44%1.4proj+126fair-135mkt-13.3%
Draw30%—proj+233fair+328mktModel lean+6.6%
HACLe Havre ACAWAY26%1.0proj+287fair+422mktModel lean+6.7%
O2.5 42% · mkt 57% ✗BTTS 48% · mkt 57% ✗1H O1.5 28% · mkt 38% ✓
FT · 2–0
Proj1.3–1.2
Match page →
ANGAngersHOME✓38%1.3proj+161fair+119mkt-7.4%
Draw29%—proj+241fair+270mkt+2.3%
TRYTroyesAWAY32%1.2proj+209fair+271mktModel lean+5.4%
O2.5 46% · mkt 52% ✓BTTS 53% · mkt 59% ✗1H O1.5 32% · mkt 35% ✓
FT · 2–1
Proj1.5–1.4
Match page →
MNSLe MansHOME✓39%1.5proj+156fair+201mktModel lean+5.8%
Draw27%—proj+273fair+245mkt-2.2%
LORLorientAWAY34%1.4proj+193fair+164mkt-3.8%
O2.5 57% · mkt 49% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 56% ✓1H O1.5 38% · mkt 32% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).