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Ligue 1 Match Board — Sunday, September 20, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Sunday, September 20, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, September 20, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Sunday, September 20

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge
FT · 2–1
Proj1.5–1.4
Match page →
AUXAJ AuxerreHOME✓40%1.5proj+150fair+215mktModel lean+8.2%
Draw27%—proj+268fair+262mkt-0.4%
BREBrestAWAY33%1.4proj+205fair+145mkt-8.1%
O2.5 55% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 37% · mkt 37% ✓
beIn Sports
FT · 2–1
Proj0.7–1.3
Match page →
NICENiceHOME19%0.7proj+429fair+250mkt-9.7%
Draw31%—proj+222fair+265mkt+3.6%
LILLLilleAWAY✗50%1.3proj-100fair+128mktModel lean+6.3%
O2.5 33% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 39% · mkt 59% ✗1H O1.5 23% · mkt 36% ✓
beIn Sports
FT · 1–2
Proj1.4–1.7
Match page →
OLMMarseilleHOME30%1.4proj+231fair+583mktModel lean+15.6%
Draw26%—proj+283fair+435mktModel lean+7.4%
PSGParis Saint-GermainAWAY✓44%1.7proj+129fair-202mkt-23.2%
O2.5 58% ✓BTTS 61% · mkt 60% ✓1H O1.5 39% · mkt 48% ✓
beIn Sports

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).