Ligue 1 Match Board — Friday, October 9, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Friday, October 9, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, October 9, 2026 · how the model graded

2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 46 of 54 on ML, 41 of 54 on Over 2.5, 46 of 54 on BTTS.

Friday, October 9

MatchupProbProjWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 2–1

Proj1.5–1.4

Match page →

LensHOME✓39%1.5proj+157fair+168mkt+1.6%

Draw27%—proj+269fair+285mkt+1.1%

LyonAWAY34%1.4proj+195fair+173mkt-2.7%

O2.5 55% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 66% ✓1H O1.5 37% · mkt 42% ✓

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).