MLS Match Board — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Every MLS match on Wednesday, September 30, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 239 of 405 on Over 2.5, 167 of 405 on BTTS.

Wednesday, September 30

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 0–3

xG1.7–1.8

Match page →

Red Bull New YorkHOME36%1.7xG+174fair+281mktModel lean+10.2%

Draw24%—xG+310fair+335mkt+1.4%

St. Louis CITY SCAWAY✓39%1.8xG+155fair-103mkt-11.6%

O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% · mkt 66% ✗1H O1.5 46% · mkt 45% ✓

Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).