MLS Match Board — Thursday, October 1, 2026

Every MLS match on Thursday, October 1, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Thursday, October 1, 2026 · how the model graded

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 239 of 405 on Over 2.5, 167 of 405 on BTTS.

Thursday, October 1

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

FT · 2–1

xG2.1–1.3

Match page →

Seattle Sounders FCHOME✓56%2.1xG-127fair-152mkt-4.5%

Draw23%—xG+343fair+395mkt+2.4%

Sporting Kansas CityAWAY22%1.3xG+365fair+410mkt+1.9%

O2.5 66% ✓BTTS 64% · mkt 67% ✓1H O1.5 45% · mkt 50% ✓

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Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).