MatchWiz
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Serie A Match Board — Sunday, February 9, 2025

Every Serie A match on Sunday, February 9, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches
ML9-6+0.0u
Over 2.510-5+3.0u
BTTS13-2+9.0u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 14 of 15 matches.

Sunday, February 9

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 0–1
Match page →
VENVeneziavsROMAAS Roma

Pier Luigi Penzo · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–1
Match page →
CAGCagliarivsPARParma

Unipol Domus · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 5–1
Match page →
LAZLaziovsMONMonza

Stadio Olimpico · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–0
Match page →
LECLeccevsBOLBologna

Stadio Ettore Giardiniero - Via del Mare · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–1
Match page →
NAPNapolivsUDIUdinese

Diego Armando Maradona · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).