Serie A Match Board — Sunday, December 21, 2025

Every Serie A match on Sunday, December 21, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML5-3+0.1u

Over 2.56-2+1.8u

BTTS7-1+4.7u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 8 matches.

Sunday, December 21

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 0–1

Sassuolovs TOR

Torino

Mapei Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 5–1

Fiorentinavs UDI

Udinese

Stadio Artemio Franchi · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

FT · 0–1

Genoavs

Atalanta

Stadio Luigi Ferraris · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).