MLS Team Props
Every game's team markets from our xG goal model — goal count, 1st-half goals, both teams to score in the 1st half, and each side to score in both halves, next to the books where they hang a line.
⚙ New model, graded in the open. Team markets are priced by a brand-new model — nothing here is a pick. BTTS-1st-half and score-in-both-halves are model-only (no US book hangs them). Grading against the box score is coming to this board. Research, not betting advice — 21+.
Sunday, May 3
NYC v DC
FT · 0–2
Goal count · Over 2.552%-110fair-102mkt+1.8%
1st-half goals · Over 1.535%+182fair—mkt—
ATX v STL
FT · 2–0
Goal count · Over 2.563%-170fair-108mkt+10.9%
1st-half goals · Over 1.543%+133fair—mkt—
Ours = our model's probability. Fair = that as no-vig odds. Mkt = the books' vig-free price where offered (goal count and 1st-half totals; the two 1st-half/both-halves markets are model-only). Edge = our probability minus the market's. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).