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Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, January 21, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 5 of 6 on Over 2.5.

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, January 21

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 3–2
Proj2.0–2.2
Match page →
QARFK QarabagHOME36%2.0proj+180fair—mkt
Draw21%—proj+371fair—mkt
SGEEintracht FrankfurtAWAY✗43%2.2proj+133fair—mkt
O2.5 80% ✓BTTS 78% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–1
Proj1.3–1.7
Match page →
GALGalatasarayHOME29%1.3proj+240fair—mkt
Draw26%—proj+282fair—mkt
ATMAtlético MadridAWAY✗44%1.7proj+125fair—mkt
O2.5 58% ✗BTTS 61% ✓
Paramount+ · CBSSN
FT · 2–3
Proj1.4–0.7
Match page →
ATAAtalantaHOME✗51%1.4proj-105fair—mkt
Draw30%—proj+233fair—mkt
ATHAthletic ClubAWAY19%0.7proj+432fair—mkt
O2.5 36% ✗BTTS 41% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–0
Proj3.4–1.0
Match page →
MUNBayern MunichHOME✓82%3.4proj-442fair—mkt
Draw12%—proj+760fair—mkt
USGUnion St.-GilloiseAWAY7%1.0proj+1365fair—mkt
O2.5 81% ✗BTTS 61% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 1–0
Proj2.0–0.9
Match page →
CHEChelseaHOME✓62%2.0proj-164fair—mkt
Draw23%—proj+333fair—mkt
PAFPafosAWAY15%0.9proj+575fair—mkt
O2.5 54% ✗BTTS 51% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–0
Proj1.7–1.1
Match page →
JUVJuventusHOME✓52%1.7proj-107fair—mkt
Draw26%—proj+282fair—mkt
SLBBenficaAWAY22%1.1proj+352fair—mkt
O2.5 52% ✗BTTS 54% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 0–3
Proj1.6–1.3
Match page →
OLMMarseilleHOME✗43%1.6proj+133fair—mkt
Draw27%—proj+269fair—mkt
LIVLiverpoolAWAY30%1.3proj+234fair—mkt
O2.5 54% ✓BTTS 58% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 3–0
Proj2.5–1.8
Match page →
NEWNewcastle UnitedHOME✓53%2.5proj-114fair—mkt
Draw20%—proj+394fair—mkt
PSVPSV EindhovenAWAY26%1.8proj+278fair—mkt
O2.5 80% ✓BTTS 77% ✗
Paramount+ · CBSSN
FT · 2–4
Proj1.2–1.8
Match page →
SLPSlavia PragueHOME23%1.2proj+335fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+300fair—mkt
BARBarcelonaAWAY✓52%1.8proj-108fair—mkt
O2.5 58% ✓BTTS 59% ✓
Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).