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Champions League Match Board — Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Every Champions League match on Wednesday, January 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Wednesday, January 28, 2026 · how the model graded
2026-27 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 5 of 6 on Over 2.5.

2025-26 · last season · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. No pre-kick prices on these, so it's hit rate only.

Wednesday, January 28

MatchupProbProjFairMkt
FT · 1–2
Proj1.4–2.0
Match page →
AJAAjax AmsterdamHOME27%1.4proj+276fair—mkt
Draw24%—proj+319fair—mkt
OLYOlympiacosAWAY✓50%2.0proj+102fair—mkt
O2.5 65% ✓BTTS 66% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 3–2
Proj4.1–0.6
Match page →
ARSArsenalHOME✓93%4.1proj-1373fair—mkt
Draw5%—proj+1819fair—mkt
KAIKairat AlmatyAWAY2%0.6proj+6244fair—mkt
O2.5 84% ✓BTTS 42% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 0–0
Proj1.5–1.7
Match page →
MONAS MonacoHOME32%1.5proj+214fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+297fair—mkt
JUVJuventusAWAY✗43%1.7proj+133fair—mkt
O2.5 62% ✗BTTS 65% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–3
Proj1.2–1.3
Match page →
ATHAthletic ClubHOME34%1.2proj+196fair—mkt
Draw29%—proj+241fair—mkt
SCPSporting CPAWAY✓37%1.3proj+171fair—mkt
O2.5 47% ✗BTTS 53% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–2
Proj2.7–1.4
Match page →
ATMAtlético MadridHOME✗65%2.7proj-187fair—mkt
Draw18%—proj+454fair—mkt
BODOBodo/GlimtAWAY17%1.4proj+496fair—mkt
O2.5 78% ✓BTTS 71% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 4–1
Proj4.1–1.4
Match page →
BARBarcelonaHOME✓83%4.1proj-493fair—mkt
Draw10%—proj+935fair—mkt
KBHF.C. KøbenhavnAWAY7%1.4proj+1291fair—mkt
O2.5 91% ✓BTTS 73% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 3–0
Proj2.3–0.9
Match page →
B04Bayer LeverkusenHOME✓67%2.3proj-204fair—mkt
Draw20%—proj+401fair—mkt
VILVillarrealAWAY13%0.9proj+674fair—mkt
O2.5 62% ✓BTTS 55% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 4–2
Proj1.2–1.9
Match page →
SLBBenficaHOME23%1.2proj+332fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+303fair—mkt
RMAReal MadridAWAY✗52%1.9proj-108fair—mkt
O2.5 58% ✓BTTS 60% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 0–2
Proj1.8–1.8
Match page →
DORBorussia DortmundHOME38%1.8proj+164fair—mkt
Draw24%—proj+318fair—mkt
INTInternazionaleAWAY✓38%1.8proj+162fair—mkt
O2.5 69% ✗BTTS 70% ✗
CBSSN · Paramount+
FT · 3–0
Proj1.9–1.5
Match page →
BRUClub BruggeHOME✓47%1.9proj+114fair—mkt
Draw24%—proj+322fair—mkt
OLMMarseilleAWAY30%1.5proj+239fair—mkt
O2.5 67% ✓BTTS 68% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 0–2
Proj1.2–1.8
Match page →
SGEEintracht FrankfurtHOME25%1.2proj+298fair—mkt
Draw25%—proj+297fair—mkt
TOTTottenham HotspurAWAY✓50%1.8proj+101fair—mkt
O2.5 59% ✗BTTS 60% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 6–0
Proj3.3–0.9
Match page →
LIVLiverpoolHOME✓81%3.3proj-439fair—mkt
Draw12%—proj+741fair—mkt
QARFK QarabagAWAY7%0.9proj+1399fair—mkt
O2.5 79% ✓BTTS 59% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–0
Proj1.5–1.1
Match page →
MNCManchester CityHOME✓47%1.5proj+113fair—mkt
Draw28%—proj+258fair—mkt
GALGalatasarayAWAY25%1.1proj+299fair—mkt
O2.5 48% ✓BTTS 53% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 2–3
Proj1.1–1.4
Match page →
NAPNapoliHOME27%1.1proj+275fair—mkt
Draw29%—proj+246fair—mkt
CHEChelseaAWAY✓44%1.4proj+125fair—mkt
O2.5 46% ✗BTTS 51% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–1
Proj2.4–1.4
Match page →
PSGParis Saint-GermainHOME✗59%2.4proj-143fair—mkt
Draw21%—proj+382fair—mkt
NEWNewcastle UnitedAWAY20%1.4proj+391fair—mkt
O2.5 72% ✗BTTS 68% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–2
Proj1.8–2.4
Match page →
PSVPSV EindhovenHOME28%1.8proj+260fair—mkt
Draw21%—proj+381fair—mkt
MUNBayern MunichAWAY✓51%2.4proj-106fair—mkt
O2.5 78% ✓BTTS 76% ✓
Paramount+
FT · 1–0
Proj1.5–1.4
Match page →
USGUnion St.-GilloiseHOME✓37%1.5proj+169fair—mkt
Draw27%—proj+268fair—mkt
ATAAtalantaAWAY36%1.4proj+180fair—mkt
O2.5 55% ✗BTTS 59% ✗
Paramount+
FT · 4–1
Proj1.3–1.0
Match page →
PAFPafosHOME✓41%1.3proj+143fair—mkt
Draw31%—proj+222fair—mkt
SLPSlavia PragueAWAY28%1.0proj+259fair—mkt
O2.5 39% ✗BTTS 46% ✗
Paramount+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).