Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael McGreevy. The righty is driving in runs at .166 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Michael McGreevy has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .091 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Michael McGreevy, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (87) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (83) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (83) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (81) vs RHP AJ Smith-Shawver: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.273).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (80) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .124 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.121).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (79) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .139 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays