Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The lefty is running at .077 SB/PA against righties this year — and .067 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 8% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Shane Bieber, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Cedric Mullins (TB) (58) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an elite bat at .047.
- Taylor Walls (TB) (52) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an elite bat at .047.
- Richie Palacios (TB) (46) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a high-volume bat at .042, due to bounce back.
- Petey Halpin (CLE) (42) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a high-volume bat at .040.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (38) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a high-volume bat at .033.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (38) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a high-volume bat at .040.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (34) vs LHP Chris Sale: a high-volume bat at .038.
Platoon edges to target
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Cedric Mullins (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .039 against righties this year.
- Taylor Walls (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- Richie Palacios (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .039 against righties this year.
- Petey Halpin (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.