Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026
Top total bases spot: Andy Pages
Andy Pages (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cristopher Sánchez. The righty is racking up bases at .430 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .429 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 39% of his trips. And Cristopher Sánchez has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .972 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Cristopher Sánchez too — .364 across 11 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jordan Walker (STL) (100) vs RHP José Soriano: a strong bat at .423 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.353), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .402 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.654), due to bounce back.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (100) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .393 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.667).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (98) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: a solid bat at .385 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) (94) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a solid bat at .376 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.972), hot bat.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) (92) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a solid bat at .388 into an arm tough on the same side (.125).
- Curtis Mead (WSH) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .417 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.381).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been getting squared up by lefties — .507 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Tommy Edman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- RHP Jameson Taillon has been getting squared up by righties — .446 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Colt Keith (DET), and Riley Greene (DET).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: James Wood (WSH), Curtis Mead (WSH), and Andrés Chaparro (WSH).
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been getting squared up by lefties — .422 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Tim Tawa (AZ).
Platoon edges to target
- Andy Pages (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .430 against lefties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .533 against lefties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .376 against righties this year.
- Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
- Nolan Schanuel (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .376 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Andy Pages finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays