Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, September 11, 2026
Top walks spot: Max Muncy
Max Muncy (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Gusto. The lefty is working counts at .133 BB/PA against righties this year — and .160 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Ryan Gusto has been prone to walking righties lately — .108 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Gusto. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mike Trout (LAA) (95) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .118 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (92) vs RHP Nolan McLean: a strong bat at .102 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.133).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (92) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .109 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: an excellent bat at .127 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) (91) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .101 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063), due to bounce back.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (90) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .111 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.081).
- Iván Herrera (STL) (89) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .111 into an arm around league average against the same side (.093), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .133 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays