Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, September 11, 2026
Top walks spot: Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Anthony Molina. The lefty is working counts at .105 BB/PA against righties this year — and .069 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 10% of his trips. And Anthony Molina has been tough to walk against righties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Anthony Molina, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Max Muncy (LAD) (100) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: a strong bat at .120 into an arm around league average against the same side (.087).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .109 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125).
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) (97) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .100 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.063), due to bounce back.
- Iván Herrera (STL) (95) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .111 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.081), hot bat.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (93) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .098 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.111), hot bat.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (92) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .108 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.111), due to bounce back.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (91) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .094 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.138).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.
- Iván Herrera (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .172 against lefties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .109 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Jake Cronenworth finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays