Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, August 7, 2026
Top walks spot: Kevin McGonigle
Kevin McGonigle (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP JT Brubaker. The lefty is working counts at .161 BB/PA against righties this year — and .150 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And JT Brubaker has been tough to walk against righties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against JT Brubaker. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Cole Carrigg (COL) (96) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .133 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) (95) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .102 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.172).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (92) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.129).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (92) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .136 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.067).
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (91) vs RHP George Klassen: a free-swinging bat at .060 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (90) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .111 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.167).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP José Soriano: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154).
Platoon edges to target
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Cole Carrigg (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .111 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .110 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Kevin McGonigle finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays