Women's college basketball matchups
Every Division I matchup on the slate: moneyline, spread, game total and team totals, our number beside the books' and the WizEdge between them. D1 against D1 only.
Updated
The moneyline grades on the model's own favorite, whichever side we had over 50% to win. Spread and total grade on our number against the book's line, and a game no book priced isn't in them. There's a record here and no units. Open a cell for the games behind it, and tonight's picks before they grade.
Archive These are the numbers we published for that night, not a re-run.
AR-Pine Bluff478.1%Win %+1135WizLine—market—
Tarleton St6691.9%Win %−1135WizLine—market—
Campbell451.6%Win %+6150WizLine—market—
25NC State8098.4%Win %−6150WizLine—market—
Delaware532.0%Win %+4900WizLine—market—
Virginia Tech10198.0%Win %−4900WizLine—market—
East Texas A&M585.6%Win %+1686WizLine—market—
Cincinnati6694.4%Win %−1686WizLine—market—
LSU N Orleans450.1%Win %+99900WizLine—market—
Alabama11899.9%Win %−99900WizLine—market—
La Salle6237.7%Win %+165WizLine—market—
Rutgers7562.3%Win %−165WizLine—market—
Detroit Mercy500.6%Win %+16567WizLine—market—
23Illinois8499.4%Win %−16567WizLine—market—
Queens420.1%Win %+99900WizLine—market—
8Vanderbilt10099.9%Win %−99900WizLine—market—
Chattanooga5059.1%Win %−144WizLine—market—
Western KY6140.9%Win %+144WizLine—market—
Stetson350.8%Win %+12400WizLine—market—
7Louisville8799.2%Win %−12400WizLine—market—
Jackson St554.3%Win %+2226WizLine—market—
Grand Canyon7795.7%Win %−2226WizLine—market—
FDU650.4%Win %+24900WizLine—market—
6Texas8599.6%Win %−24900WizLine—market—
Long Island5126.1%Win %+283WizLine—market—
Texas St6973.9%Win %−283WizLine—market—
Lindenwood5284.7%Win %−554WizLine—market—
Denver6615.3%Win %+554WizLine—market—
Morgan St380.4%Win %+24900WizLine—market—
Colorado8399.6%Win %−24900WizLine—market—
CA Baptist7922.4%Win %+346WizLine—market—
Oregon St7777.6%Win %−346WizLine—market—
Saint Mary's547.3%Win %+1270WizLine—market—
Stanford8792.7%Win %−1270WizLine—market—First week of the season: every rating is last season's, and our margins have run about two points light on favourites over this stretch. The side holds up better than the number — read a 12-point favourite as a 14-point one.
How to read this board
Our projected score, win percentage, spread and total sit beside the books' numbers on every Division I matchup. Three cuts above the board: every game, the Top 25, or one conference. Four markets under that: moneyline, spread, game total, team totals.
Every club is rated on what it did against who it played, over a rolling year, with last season weighted at half this one. Walked forward over 5,449 Division I games last season, the margin missed by 10.1 points on average at a calibration slope of 1.03. Calls at 80% or better landed about 90% of the time, and a 75% call landed 72%.
November totals run high. Last November ours came in 2.4 points over the games, and the first couple of weeks are the softest stretch of the season. The side holds up better than the number.
This board is Division I against Division I, and nothing else. The other side of those games has almost no record with us, so there's no number we could stand behind. That drops a lot of November: 70 of the 164 games on the opening slate. The scores page has them all.
WizEdge is our probability at the book's number minus the book's own, both with the vig stripped, in percentage points. It's a dash where no book is quoting the game, and that's most of this slate. We've graded only a handful of women's lines, so the column is a disagreement, not a verdict. The strip above the board grades our moneyline side on every game, and spread and total wherever a book hung a line, in wins and losses. Nothing here is a pick.
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