Premier League Match Board — Friday, August 21, 2026

Every Premier League match on Friday, August 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, August 21, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-0+0.2u

Over 2.51-0+0.6u

BTTS0-1−1.0u

Season · all graded matches

ML7-2+12.5u

Over 2.56-3+0.1u

BTTS4-5−1.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 9 on Over 2.5.

Friday, August 21

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 3–0

Proj1.9–1.0

ARSArsenalHOME✓59%1.9proj-145fair-367mkt-19.4%

DRWDraw24%—proj+321fair+596mktModel lean+9.4%

COVCoventry CityAWAY17%1.0proj+487fair+1270mktModel lean+9.8%

O2.5 55% · mkt 60% ✓BTTS 54% · mkt 41% ✗

USA Net · Universo

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).