Premier League Match Board — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Every Premier League match on Saturday, August 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 22, 2026 · how the model graded

ML4-1+11.6u

Over 2.52-3−1.4u

BTTS2-3−1.0u

Season · all graded matches

ML7-2+12.5u

Over 2.56-3+0.1u

BTTS4-5−1.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 7 of 9 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, August 22

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 2–0

Proj1.8–1.3

HULHull CityHOME✓47%1.8proj+112fair+758mktModel lean+35.5%

DRWDraw26%—proj+291fair+448mktModel lean+7.3%

MANManchester UnitedAWAY27%1.3proj+267fair-238mkt-43.2%

O2.5 59% · mkt 60% ✗BTTS 61% · mkt 50% ✗

USA Net · Universo

FT · 2–0

Proj1.5–0.9

EVEEvertonHOME✓50%1.5proj+102fair+133mktModel lean+6.8%

DRWDraw29%—proj+248fair+257mkt+0.8%

CRYCrystal PalaceAWAY22%0.9proj+363fair+241mkt-7.7%

O2.5 43% · mkt 50% ✓BTTS 47% · mkt 54% ✓

USA Net · Universo

FT · 0–1

Proj1.7–1.3

NFONottingham ForestHOME✗45%1.7proj+122fair+144mktModel lean+4.2%

DRWDraw26%—proj+281fair+252mkt-2.1%

LEELeeds UnitedAWAY29%1.3proj+249fair+226mkt-2.1%

O2.5 57% · mkt 50% ✗BTTS 60% · mkt 55% ✗

NBCSN · Peacock

FT · 2–1

Proj1.4–1.1

IPSIpswich TownHOME✓42%1.4proj+138fair+187mktModel lean+7.2%

DRWDraw29%—proj+248fair+244mkt-0.3%

SUNSunderlandAWAY29%1.1proj+242fair+177mkt-6.9%

O2.5 47% · mkt 48% ✗BTTS 53% · mkt 54% ✓

Peacock

FT · 3–0

Proj1.8–1.1

BREBrentfordHOME✓52%1.8proj-110fair+124mktModel lean+7.8%

DRWDraw25%—proj+300fair+284mkt-1.1%

TOTTottenham HotspurAWAY23%1.1proj+343fair+241mkt-6.7%

O2.5 57% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 58% · mkt 60% ✗

NBC · Peacock

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).