La Liga Match Board — Friday, August 21, 2026

Every La Liga match on Friday, August 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, August 21, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-0+1.1u

Over 2.50-1−1.0u

BTTS0-1−1.0u

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Friday, August 21

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–0

Proj2.0–1.0

BETReal BetisHOME✓58%2.0proj-140fair+117mktModel lean+12.3%

DRWDraw24%—proj+323fair+267mkt-3.6%

RSOReal SociedadAWAY18%1.0proj+456fair+271mkt-9.0%

O2.5 57% · mkt 52% ✗BTTS 56% · mkt 57% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).