La Liga Match Board — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Every La Liga match on Saturday, August 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 22, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-3−3.0u

Over 2.51-2−1.4u

BTTS1-2−1.1u

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Saturday, August 22

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 1–3

Proj1.5–1.0

ATHAthletic ClubHOME✗48%1.5proj+109fair-119mkt-6.6%

DRWDraw29%—proj+248fair+271mkt+1.8%

SEVSevillaAWAY23%1.0proj+326fair+426mktModel lean+4.4%

O2.5 44% · mkt 43% ✗BTTS 49% · mkt 47% ✗

ESPN2 · ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 0–0

Proj1.4–1.1

VALValenciaHOME✗43%1.4proj+135fair+161mktModel lean+4.3%

DRWDraw29%—proj+241fair+224mkt-1.6%

CELCelta VigoAWAY28%1.1proj+256fair+224mkt-2.8%

O2.5 45% · mkt 42% ✓BTTS 51% · mkt 49% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–2

Proj1.4–1.1

ESPEspanyolHOME✗42%1.4proj+140fair+643mktModel lean+28.2%

DRWDraw29%—proj+240fair+386mktModel lean+8.9%

RMAReal MadridAWAY29%1.1proj+247fair-195mkt-37.2%

O2.5 45% · mkt 58% ✗BTTS 51% · mkt 52% ✓

ABC · ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).