La Liga Match Board — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Every La Liga match on Tuesday, August 25, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML6-8−1.8u

Over 2.56-8−3.8u

BTTS6-8−3.2u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 12 of 14 on Over 2.5.

Tuesday, August 25

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

3:00 PM ET

Proj1.0–1.1

VALValenciaHOME32%1.0proj+213fair+193mkt-2.2%

DRWDraw32%—proj+212fair+249mkt+3.4%

BETReal BetisAWAY36%1.1proj+177fair+169mkt-1.1%

O2.5 37% · mkt 48%BTTS 45% · mkt 55%

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).