La Liga Match Board — Monday, August 24, 2026

Every La Liga match on Monday, August 24, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Monday, August 24, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-2−2.0u

Over 2.51-1−0.3u

BTTS1-1−0.1u

Season · all graded matchesFull ledger →

ML19-20−0.1u

Over 2.519-20−6.5u

BTTS18-21−5.8u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 31 of 39 on Over 2.5.

Monday, August 24

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 0–0

Proj1.9–0.8

Match page →

OsasunaHOME✗63%1.9proj-169fair-104mktModel lean+11.9%

Draw23%—proj+328fair+267mkt-3.9%

LevanteAWAY14%0.8proj+624fair+361mkt-7.9%

O2.5 51% · mkt 45% ✗BTTS 48% · mkt 49% ✓

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

FT · 1–1

Proj1.2–1.0

Match page →

MálagaHOME✗39%1.2proj+158fair+145mkt-2.1%

Draw31%—proj+220fair+219mkt-0.1%

DeportivoAWAY30%1.0proj+233fair+260mkt+2.3%

O2.5 39% · mkt 42% ✓BTTS 47% · mkt 51% ✗

ESPN Deportes · ESPN+

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).