Ligue 1 Match Board — Friday, August 21, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Friday, August 21, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Friday, August 21, 2026 · how the model graded

ML1-0+0.8u

Over 2.51-0—

BTTS0-1−1.0u

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Friday, August 21

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 4–0

Proj2.0–1.1

OLMMarseilleHOME✓57%2.0proj-132fair-122mkt+1.9%

DRWDraw23%—proj+327fair+329mkt+0.1%

STRStrasbourgAWAY20%1.1proj+410fair+358mkt-2.2%

O2.5 60% ✓BTTS 59% · mkt 62% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).