MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Ligue 1 Match Board — Saturday, August 22, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Saturday, August 22, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Saturday, August 22, 2026 · how the model graded
ML1-4−3.4u
Over 2.52-3−1.5u
BTTS1-4−3.3u
Season · all graded matches
ML2-7−4.6u
Over 2.56-3+0.7u
BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Saturday, August 22

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge
FT · 5–2
Proj2.1–0.8
RCLRCLLensHOME✓66%2.1proj-191fair-175mkt+1.9%
DRWDraw22%—proj+359fair+372mkt+0.6%
AUXAUXAJ AuxerreAWAY13%0.8proj+691fair+565mkt-2.4%
O2.5 55% · mkt 57% ✓BTTS 49% · mkt 55% ✗
FT · 2–2
Proj2.0–1.1
MNSMNSLe MansHOME✗58%2.0proj-136fair+166mktModel lean+20.0%
DRWDraw23%—proj+335fair+249mkt-5.7%
BREBREBrestAWAY19%1.1proj+418fair+197mkt-14.4%
O2.5 61% · mkt 48% ✓BTTS 60% · mkt 54% ✓
FT · 0–2
Proj1.7–1.0
TOUTOUToulouseHOME✗52%1.7proj-109fair+144mktModel lean+11.3%
DRWDraw26%—proj+280fair+258mkt-1.7%
LYONLYONLyonAWAY21%1.0proj+366fair+225mkt-9.4%
O2.5 51% · mkt 51% ✗BTTS 53% · mkt 57% ✗
FT · 0–0
Proj2.0–1.1
NICENICENiceHOME✗56%2.0proj-125fair+153mktModel lean+16.0%
DRWDraw24%—proj+321fair+236mkt-6.0%
LORLORLorientAWAY21%1.1proj+382fair+227mkt-9.8%
O2.5 60% · mkt 43% ✗BTTS 60% · mkt 51% ✗
FT · 0–0
Proj2.0–1.1
TRYTRYTroyesHOME✗59%2.0proj-145fair+243mktModel lean+30.0%
DRWDraw23%—proj+336fair+267mkt-4.3%
PARPARParis FCAWAY18%1.1proj+458fair+130mkt-25.5%
O2.5 60% · mkt 54% ✗BTTS 57% · mkt 60% ✗

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).