Ligue 1 Match Board — Sunday, August 23, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Sunday, August 23, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Sunday, August 23, 2026 · how the model graded

ML0-3−2.0u

Over 2.53-0+2.1u

BTTS1-2−2.0u

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Sunday, August 23

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

FT · 0–2

Proj1.4–1.2

ANGAngersHOME✗40%1.4proj+148fair+410mktModel lean+20.7%

DRWDraw29%—proj+246fair+292mkt+3.4%

LILLLilleAWAY31%1.2proj+225fair-122mkt-24.2%

O2.5 47% · mkt 48% ✓BTTS 53% · mkt 49% ✗

FT · 0–1

Proj1.5–1.1

HACLe Havre ACHOME✗45%1.5proj+121fair+287mktModel lean+19.5%

DRWDraw28%—proj+254fair+281mkt+2.0%

MONAS MonacoAWAY26%1.1proj+279fair+109mkt-21.4%

O2.5 48% · mkt 55% ✓BTTS 53% · mkt 57% ✗

FT · 2–2

Proj1.6–1.7

RENStade RennaisHOME35%1.6proj+185fair—mkt—

DRWDraw25%—proj+296fair—mkt—

PSGParis Saint-GermainAWAY✗40%1.7proj+152fair—mkt—

O2.5 63% ✓BTTS 65% ✓

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).