Ligue 1 Match Board — Friday, August 28, 2026

Every Ligue 1 match on Friday, August 28, 2026 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML2-7−4.6u

Over 2.56-3+0.7u

BTTS2-7−6.3u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 8 of 9 on ML, 7 of 9 on Over 2.5, 8 of 9 on BTTS.

Friday, August 28

MatchupProbProjFairMktEdge

2:45 PM ET

Proj1.7–1.4

LILLLilleHOME44%1.7proj+129fair+360mktModel lean+21.9%

DRWDraw26%—proj+292fair+314mkt+1.4%

PSGParis Saint-GermainAWAY31%1.4proj+224fair-118mkt-23.3%

O2.5 61% · mkt 55%BTTS 63%

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model trained on actual goals. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).