MLS Match Board — Saturday, September 27, 2025

Every MLS match on Saturday, September 27, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches

ML161-153+8.7u

Over 2.5189-125−1.6u

BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, September 27

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge

FT · 1–1

Toronto FCvs MIA

Inter Miami CF

BMO Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–3

Red Bull New Yorkvs NYC

New York City FC

Sports Illustrated Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–4

Charlotte FCvs MTL

CF Montréal

Bank of America Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–0

New England Revolutionvs ATL

Atlanta United FC

Gillette Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–6

D.C. Unitedvs PHI

Philadelphia Union

Audi Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–1

Nashville SCvs HOU

Houston Dynamo FC

GEODIS Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–0

Chicago Fire FCvs CLB

Columbus Crew

Soldier Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–3

St. Louis CITY SCvs LAFC

LAFC

Energizer Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–1

Real Salt Lakevs ATX

Austin FC

America First Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–1

Colorado Rapidsvs MIN

Minnesota United FC

Dick's Sporting Goods Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–2

Portland Timbersvs DAL

FC Dallas

Providence Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 4–1

LA Galaxyvs SKC

Sporting Kansas City

Dignity Health Sports Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–2

Seattle Sounders FCvs VAN

Vancouver Whitecaps

Lumen Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1

San Diego FCvs

San Jose Earthquakes

Snapdragon Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).