MatchWiz

MLS Match BoardSaturday, October 4, 2025

Every MLS match on Saturday, October 4, 2025 — the final score next to our goal model's 1X2, Over 2.5, and both-teams-to-score picks, each graded ✓/✗ against the result.

Season · all graded matches
ML161-153+8.7u
Over 2.5189-125−1.6u
BTTS199-115+2.5u

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 194 of 314 on Over 2.5, 76 of 314 on BTTS.

Saturday, October 4

MatchupProbxGFairMktEdge
FT · 0–1
DCD.C. UnitedvsCLTCharlotte FC

Audi Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–1
MTLCF MontréalvsNSHNashville SC

Stade Saputo · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–1
DALFC DallasvsLALA Galaxy

Toyota Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 0–1
RBNYRed Bull New YorkvsCINFC Cincinnati

Sports Illustrated Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 4–1
MIAInter Miami CFvsNENew England Revolution

Chase Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–0
PHIPhiladelphia UnionvsNYCNew York City FC

Subaru Park · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–1
ORLOrlando City SCvsCLBColumbus Crew

Inter&Co Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 3–0
MINMinnesota United FCvsSKCSporting Kansas City

Allianz Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–4
HOUHouston Dynamo FCvsSDSan Diego FC

Shell Energy Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–3
ATXAustin FCvsSTLSt. Louis CITY SC

Q2 Stadium · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 2–2
CHIChicago Fire FCvsTORToronto FC

Soldier Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–0
RSLReal Salt LakevsCOLColorado Rapids

America First Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

FT · 1–0
SEASeattle Sounders FCvsPORPortland Timbers

Lumen Field · Wasn't priced before kickoff.

Prob / Fair = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. Edge = our probability minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).